I love statistics
Submitted by jrenaut on Wed, 01/16/2008 - 12:25pm.Analysis: Romney takes Michigan gold as S.C. fight heats up - CNN.com
Not surprisingly, the economy was by far the most important issue to Michigan voters. For Romney's chief competitor in the Michigan primary, John McCain, that was bad news. Only three in 10 voters who cited economic concerns as their top priority gave their votes to McCain; almost four in 10 went for Romney.
In other words, thirty-some percent who thought the economy was the most important thing voted for Romney, which was great. And thirty-some percent who thought the economy was the most important thing voted for McCain, which was a disaster. Good use of vague numbers, CNN.
It's interesting that Rudy has skipped all of these states and just hung out in Florida. Is this a common tactic that I just haven't heard about? Each Presidential election, I pay more attention than the last, and this is the first time I've really followed the primaries, so maybe this is all normal and I just haven't noticed.
I keep hearing the same thing about McCain from Democrats - while he's the least offensive of the Republican candidates in the eyes of most Democrats, he's also seen as the most likely to beat whatever Democrat nominee he would face. So it's tough to know who to root for.
At least it's an interesting race. Hillary and Obama are sniping at each other over some ridiculous, trivial crap. There hasn't been a clear frontrunner on either side (I refuse to admit that Hillary is the clear frontrunner). Lots of people who should have dropped out are sticking around (I'm looking at you, Edwards. You'd better get 60% of South Carolina. Actually, don't, because I want you to be Obama's VP.).
Anyway, exciting times. And the city of DC still can't seem to work out my voter registration. Here I was, thinking I was registered through the DMV, and apparently that was all a lie.
Dear Dallas Fans
Submitted by jrenaut on Mon, 01/14/2008 - 12:21pm.Look, you have it all wrong. The problem with Tony Romo isn't Jessica Simpson. It's December.
In two seasons, Romo has a completion percentage of 64% and a rating of 95. For reference, Joe Montana's career numbers are 63% and 92. So, Romo's off to a good start. He's thrown 57 touchdowns to only 33 interception. His career record is 20-10 (All numbers include his two playoff games).
But then look at him in December. He's 4-7. 11 touchdowns vs 14 interceptions. His completion percentage is 59% and his rating is 74. He has 31 fumbles in his career, 13 in 11 December games. The numbers look even worse if you take out two games against Detroit, not exactly the shining model of a good football team.
The numbers are even more disparate if you remove December from his totals (Shocking, I know, that basic mathematics still apply to the quarterback of the Cowboys. Someone tell Jerry Jones). 67% completion percentage outside of December, 46 touchdowns to 19 interceptions, a 16-3 record, and a 108 rating. Those are Hall of Fame numbers (Assuming they continue, of course). But ask Dan Marino how people react when you can't win in the playoffs. Or ask Peyton Manning two years ago.
Romo seems like a nice guy, and he's certainly had some early-season success. But he needs to learn how to play in December.
If you want to hate Jessica Simpson because she's pretty, famous, and really dumb, then go ahead and hate her if it makes you feel better. But blame Romo's playoff misery on something else, because it's not her fault.
Again, for reference, you want to know someone with a career passer rating of 74? Gus Frerotte. Jon Kitna's career rating is 79. Charlie Batch's is 78.
Do you hear me, John Madden? Romo may go on to have a long and brilliant career, but before you anoint him the heir to your man-crush on Brett Favre, let's see him win a meaningful game in December.
Athletes DO graduate from college
Submitted by jrenaut on Wed, 10/31/2007 - 2:49pm.Race, Class, and Graduation Rates
These two together make a valuable point that's often missed in the operatic hand-wringing about the failures and abuses of college athletics: when you're talking about graduation rates, it's important to compare apples to apples.
Interesting article. Everyone has heard about the abysmal graduation rate of college athletes, especially at the top sports schools. But the point here is that comparing the graduation rates of athletes to the overall graduation rates isn't fair. If you look at the graduation rates separated by race, it becomes clear that the problem is not that too few athletes graduate, but that too few minorities graduate.
This is not to say that this isn't a problem. But the potential solutions to the problem are very different. It reminds us that it's very important to actually identify the problem before trying to solve it. This should be obvious, but too often it isn't.
Back in college, as a math major, I remember hearing over and over how important it was to first understand the question. At times, I thought, "Leave me alone, of course I understand the question, and if I didn't, it's your fault for the way you wrote it." But then you get to the real world, and it becomes less and clear what the questions are. I guess my professors were right.
Anyway, the article suggests that athletes' graduation rates would take care of themselves if we helped out minority students. Which seems like a good idea to me.





